myzclthesis.
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AN INDEPENDENT INVESTMENT THESIS

Privacy needs
an exit option.

I believe Zclassic can be a check on Zcash’s direction: a proof-of-work alternative that puts pressure on protocol-funded rewards and makes changing the monetary rules harder to justify.

Read the thesis

A personal argument. Open to scrutiny.

01 / PRIVATE MONEY02 / PROOF OF WORK03 / CREDIBLE EXIT

01 / THE STARTING POINT

First, the case
for private money.

Read Frank Braun’s original essay ↗

Frank Braun’s July 2025 thesis argues that Zcash could benefit if demand for financial privacy grows.

He connects private wealth storage and commerce to demand for privacy coins, arguing that longer-term shielded holdings and better wallet usability could reinforce adoption. His investment case also considers issuance, competition, and execution risk. [1]

Where my argument begins

Braun’s essay makes a case for ZEC. The ZCL counterweight thesis on this page is my own extension; it is not an endorsement by Braun.

02 / MY ZCL THESIS

A credible alternative
makes consent matter.

My reason for taking a ZCL position is to support an outside option. I want the Zcash Foundation and the wider ecosystem to face a real market consequence if they pursue proof of stake against the preferences of PoW supporters.

01

Keep the option alive.

Zclassic describes itself as a community-driven Zcash fork secured by proof of work. That gives this thesis a concrete starting point. [2]

02

Make exit credible.

My hypothesis: users, miners, and builders having somewhere viable to go could make a controversial consensus change less attractive.

03

Turn choice into pressure.

A ZCL position expresses my preference for PoW. For that signal to matter, it must be accompanied by useful software, security, adoption, and liquidity.

The goal is to keep PoW a credible choice and compete down the claim on issuance made by development organizations. Whether ZCL can exert enough pressure to do that remains unproven. The case for Crosslink’s hybrid design deserves its own hearing.

03 / COMPETE THE REWARD DOWN

Funding should
earn its place.

I want competition to push protocol-funded rewards toward the minimum needed to deliver work users actually value.

A development organization should have to justify its cost, just as any other service provider does. When funding is embedded in consensus, a dissatisfied holder cannot simply cancel that allocation while continuing to use the same rules. Their alternatives are to persuade the network to change the rules, accept the arrangement, or leave.

A credible ZCL alternative could make leaving a meaningful choice. If users, capital, miners, and builders prefer a network without the same development allocation, that gives Zcash’s funding recipients a reason to ask for less, explain their budgets, and demonstrate why their work is worth supporting. The pressure would be strongest if useful work can be sustained with smaller allocations or voluntary funding.

This is what I mean by competing the reward down: make the cost of institutional funding visible and contestable. Buying ZCL does not mechanically lower a Zcash funding percentage. It supports the outside option that could make a lower percentage politically and economically attractive.

Which reward, and whose cost?

The original Founders’ Reward and later development funds are different arrangements. ZIP 214’s historical Canopy allocation included 5% of the subsidy for ZF; subsequent revisions define different recipients. I use “foundation reward” here as shorthand for protocol-directed institutional funding, not a claim that ZF currently receives the entire development allocation. [5]

With total subsidy unchanged, reducing an institutional slice reallocates coins to other recipients, such as miners. It does not by itself reduce issuance or holder dilution.

Zclassic describes its block rewards as going entirely to miners. That makes it a useful point of comparison, but it does not establish equal security, privacy features, or maintenance quality. A cheaper alternative must still work. [2]

04 / THE INCENTIVE TO DO SOMETHING

Restraint is
a deliverable.

A permanent funding stream can create pressure to produce a permanent roadmap.

My concern is an incentive mismatch. A funded organization must explain its budget, retain staff, and demonstrate progress. New protocol features produce visible milestones. Keeping a sound monetary rule unchanged produces fewer announcements, even when that restraint is more valuable to holders.

That can create a cycle: a budget supports a team; the team needs a roadmap; the roadmap proposes protocol changes; those changes create new implementation, audit, and maintenance work that supports the next budget. Nobody has to act dishonestly for this incentive to exist. This is my institutional critique, not evidence of any particular person’s motive.

For monetary rules, my starting point is continuity. Every change should overcome the costs of implementation risk, coordination, and weakening expectations that the rules will stay put. When the claimed improvement cannot clear that bar, leaving the protocol alone is the better outcome.

Doing nothing to issuance does not mean abandoning the software. Fix vulnerabilities, maintain nodes, improve wallets, and fund careful audits. Judge that work by user benefit and reliability, rather than the number of consensus changes shipped.

05 / CASE STUDY: ISSUANCE SMOOTHING

A smoother curve
is not enough.

Read ZIP 234 ↗

For issuance smoothing, my preference is to leave the established monetary schedule alone.

ZIP 234 is marked Draft in the text reviewed September 12, 2026. It proposes replacing stepped halvings with a subsidy calculated from the remaining money reserve, retaining the stated 21-million cap. It also enables future reissuance of funds deliberately removed from circulation through the NSM. Its authors argue this could soften mining-revenue shocks and support long-term security. [6]

Those are the benefits the proposal needs to establish. My objection is that the cap is only one part of a monetary commitment: the timing and conditions of issuance matter too. A familiar schedule gives holders and miners a rule they can plan around. Changing it spends some of that predictability and sets another precedent for revisiting monetary policy.

A smoother revenue path may appeal to miners and, wherever funding streams receive a share of the subsidy, to those recipients as well. That creates a reason to examine incentives; it does not prove that smoothing increases an organization’s total funding or that its authors proposed it for personal benefit.

In my assessment, retaining the existing schedule is better unless proponents show that the security benefit outweighs the implementation and credibility costs. An institution needing a new project is not a reason to change the money. A credible PoW alternative can reinforce that boundary by giving people who value restraint somewhere else to go.

Deliberate removal is different from lost keys

ZIP 233 provides an explicit mechanism for removing funds from circulation. A balance whose keys are lost does not become an NSM deposit merely because it is dormant. The rich-list research described below would not justify treating inactive coins as available for reissuance. [7]

07 / THE GOVERNANCE DISTINCTION

Competition is
the mechanism.

Owning ZCL does not give me a veto over Zcash.

Zcash changes go through a proposal process and network adoption. The Foundation is an influential participant, not a unilateral switch for consensus rules. [3]

ECC’s published PoS research establishes that a transition has been explored. It does not establish that the Foundation can impose one, or that a particular proposal has activated. [4]

My concern is that tying consensus participation to stake can increase the importance of existing capital holders. That concern must be tested against the actual design. PoW has its own concentration and security tradeoffs.

08 / WHAT WOULD CHANGE MY MIND

The thesis has to earn its keep.

A good story is only the beginning. These are the conditions I would watch.

ZCL fails to become a usable alternative

If wallets, maintenance, network security, or liquidity are inadequate, the exit option is weak. A ticker alone cannot discipline another network.

Lower funding costs come at the expense of essential work

If voluntary support or a smaller allocation cannot sustain security, audits, and reliable software, the cheaper arrangement may be worse for users. The relevant comparison is the cost of delivering dependable private money.

Issuance smoothing demonstrates a compelling net benefit

Evidence that smoothing materially improves security, under realistic assumptions and after accounting for transition and credibility costs, would weaken my preference for leaving the schedule unchanged.

PoS addresses the concerns better than expected

A design with persuasive evidence for privacy, broad participation, and resistance to concentration would weaken my objection. The comparison needs a specific protocol and its assumptions.

The market does not reward private PoW money

Demand for privacy could grow without value accruing to ZCL. Even a successful Zcash investment thesis does not establish a successful Zclassic investment.

Competitive pressure never reaches governance

If the Zcash community chooses PoS regardless of activity on Zclassic, ZCL may remain an alternative without preventing the transition. This is the central causal uncertainty.

ON-CHAIN RESEARCH

A rich list.
With honest limits.

Rich list research — not yet available

A transparent-address rich list is possible. A list of every holder is not.

Transparent balances can be ranked from an indexed chain snapshot. One person may control many addresses; one exchange address may hold funds for many people. Shielded holdings cannot be ranked by public address.

Could we identify lost coins?

Dormancy is a signal to investigate, not proof of lost keys. Long-term savings and cold storage can remain untouched for years. Receiving a payment does not demonstrate that an address owner still controls the keys.

What would the research view measure?

A complete index could show each transparent address’s balance, oldest unspent output, and last observed spend at a stated block height. A 1-, 3-, or 5-year inactivity filter would identify dormant candidates. These thresholds would be exploratory choices, not calibrated loss probabilities.

What would count as stronger evidence?

A later spend disproves loss for the outputs it spends. A script proven unspendable under the applicable consensus rules is a separate category. Neither address age nor lack of activity alone establishes permanent loss.

No rich-list rankings or lost-supply estimate are published yet. The current explorer’s tested API does not provide a rich list; this view needs a complete address/UTXO index with spend history. Shielded balances would remain outside its coverage.

09 / WHERE TO BUY

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10 / FOLLOW THE ARGUMENT

Read the sources.
Reach your own conclusion.

Sources reviewed September 11–12, 2026. Historical essays describe their publication context; the live strip reports source observations separately and does not track protocol activation status.